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Strong Job Gains in February, Despite Declining Labor Demand, Will Likely Add More Confusion to the Already-Confounding Macro Environment

Mar. 08, 2023 Source: Toby Dayton, LinkUp CEO

Last week, the Wall Street Journal published a story on the front page entitled “Long-Robust U.S. Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling” with the subtitle ‘Private-sector readings show job postings receding more than government reports of job openings.’

Read the full article
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In explaining the difference between BLS and private-sector data, the article states, “The reliability of the Labor Department’s job-openings estimates has declined in recent years because fewer businesses have been responding to survey questions, said Paul Calhoun Jr., an economist at the Labor Department. The response rate for the survey fell to 30.6% last September from 56.4% in February 2020. The department increased its sample size in 2019 because of the declining response rates. Private sector postings aren’t as focused on active searches, but the sample sizes are much larger, lending credence to their findings.”

For anyone interested, we’ll be walking through a longer and more detailed explanation than that, along with other commentary around the job market, during a zoom conversation Digging into the Job Market tomorrow at 3PM CT.

As to the credibility of our forecasts, the quality of our data, and the signal inherent in it, we’d point to our 2022 NFP forecast track-record (see graph).

We hope it holds up similarly as well in 2023.

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