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The Wage Inflation Narrative Is About To Be Upstaged By A Nasty Jobs Report

Jan. 03, 2019 Source: Toby Dayton, LinkUp CEO

By almost every measure, the U.S. labor market vastly exceeded everyone’s expectations in 2018, including our own.

On a number of occasions, we’ve compared our dataset to an alethiometer, and as such, while we frequently struggle to get the reading precisely right, we remain steadfast in our conviction regarding the tool’s ability to deliver meaningful, unique, and sustainable alpha at a macro, sector, and individual company level.

And what our alethiometer is telling us at the moment, in no uncertain terms, is that labor demand is slowing down. In fact, it’s been slowing down all year. The chart below shows the percentage change, month-to-month, in new and total job openings (using our paired-month methodology) in LinkUp’s job search engine. While it’s no Narrative Machine (yet), the story couldn’t be clearer.

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