As we indicated last week regarding our job market data sourced directly and entirely from company websites around the world, we don’t get our monthly data until the morning after the month ends, so for last week’s non-farm payroll forecast, we only had partial information for August.
As we noted, however, our forecast model uses data from either the month being forecasted or the prior month depending on hiring velocity across the U.S. economy - a metric we calculate using our ‘Closed Duration’ metric which measures how long openings are posted on employer websites before they are taken down once the position has been filled with a new hire.
For August’s NFP forecast, we based our forecast (a net gain of 90,000 jobs) on July’s LinkUp data due to the slowdown in hiring velocity over the past few months. So it’s unlikely our forecast would have changed even if we had had August data given that hiring velocity slowed down yet again last month.
But even though the August BLS jobs report came in above slightly above consensus estimates, our cumulative track record since January 2022 remains stellar - less than 1% off from Revised BLS data.