LinkUp Forecasting Net Gain of 105,000 Jobs in September - Below Consensus Estimates
Job Market Continues to Cool Off as Labor Demand and Hiring Slow Down
![](https://optimise2.assets-servd.host/link-up/production/images/blog-thumbnails/NFP-Forecast.jpg?w=1080&auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&dm=1680128024&s=1c63c506a5ff00b98666746463e3c95a)
With last week’s commentary on the job market, we’ll jump straight into LinkUp’s labor demand data and our resulting non-farm payroll (NFP) forecast for September and provide some additional commentary in the next few weeks.
In September, job openings in the U.S. indexed directly from company websites globally fell 5%, and new and removed openings dropped 8% and 3% respectively.
![](https://optimise2.assets-servd.host/link-up/production/images/NFP/2023-09/NFP-Jobs-by-Month-Sept-2023.png?w=768&auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&dm=1706292671&s=d70de8e7bcbff6eec64a417024cf087b)
The LinkUp 10,000, which measures the total number of U.S. openings from the 10,000 global employers with the most job openings in the U.S., fell 4% in September.
![](https://optimise2.assets-servd.host/link-up/production/images/NFP/2023-09/NFP-LU10K-Sept-2023.webp?w=768&auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&dm=1706292662&s=c2d092ffe7d889d902ca6be374ea2542)
The decline in active job openings was widely distributed throughout the country.
![](https://optimise2.assets-servd.host/link-up/production/images/NFP/2023-09/NFP-Percent-Change-US-Active-Job-Listings-MOM-Sept-2023.png?w=768&auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&dm=1706292648&s=d426d92cba2fee0190494430ea1ff749)
Likewise, job openings declined in all but 4 industries, with the largest percentage drops in Retail, Transportation (Truck/Rail/Air), Real Estate, and Finance. The only sectors seeing increases were Other Services, Transportation (Post/Courier/Warehouse), and Manufacturing (Wood/Paper/Chemical/Plastic).
![](https://optimise2.assets-servd.host/link-up/production/images/NFP/2023-09/NFP-NAICS-Sept-2023.webp?w=768&auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&dm=1706292640&s=cc33e197fca86ab5a4d727509a534480)
Job declines were seen in both Goods and Services industries.
![](https://optimise2.assets-servd.host/link-up/production/images/NFP/2023-09/NPF-Goods-Services-Sept-2023.png?w=768&auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&dm=1706292630&s=5446c99ba1409c7de0386bf4ad166a6c)
Job openings declined in every single Occupation category except Personal Care & Service (up 14%) and Life, Physical, Social Science (up 2%). The largest declines were seen in Education, Installation, Maintenance & Repair, and Social Services.
![](https://optimise2.assets-servd.host/link-up/production/images/NFP/2023-09/NFP-ONET-Sept-2023.webp?w=768&auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&dm=1706292623&s=0daacacc8f1d5cf19303da65cbb182bb)
Job Duration, which essentially tracks hiring velocity by measuring the average number of days that openings are listed on company websites, dropped slight in September.
![](https://optimise2.assets-servd.host/link-up/production/images/NFP/2023-09/NFP-Closed-Duration-Sept-2023.webp?w=768&auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&dm=1706292616&s=b75d64767521bdad0cc44b43d51fca77)
Based on our data for September, we are forecasting a net gain of just 105,000 jobs in the U.S. in September, quite a bit below consensus estimates of 170,000.
![](https://optimise2.assets-servd.host/link-up/production/images/NFP/2023-09/NFP-Forecast-Table-Sept-2023.webp?w=768&auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&dm=1706292610&s=a6191bb0e95faae372de0a36b13de505)
As mentioned at the outset, we’ll publish some commentary about the broader job market, the soft landing, and the general state of the economy over the next few weeks.
Insights: Related insights and resources
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08.31.2023
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